Reservoir Operation for Water Supply Considering Operational Ensemble Hydrological Predictions

Abstract

This paper presents approaches and case studies for the introduction of ensemble hydrological predictions to reservoir operation for water supply. Medium-term operational ensemble forecasts of precipitation are employed to improve the real-time reservoir operation for drought management considering longer prospects with respect to future hydrological conditions in the target river basin. Real-time optimization of the water release strategy is conducted using dynamic programming approaches considering ensemble hydrological predictions. A case study on the application of ensemble hydrological predictions to reservoir operation for water use is reported as an example, with a hypothetical target river basin whose hydrological characteristics are derived from an actual reservoir and river basin.