A Statistical Analysis of Japanese Inter-Prefectural Migration After Disasters

Abstract

This study conducts a statistical analysis of the impact of disasters on inter-prefectural migration in Japan over 41 years (1973–2013), and estimates the change in emigration and immigration after disasters of different magnitudes. The result reveals that emigration decreases and immigration increases after a modest-sized disaster, while the opposite is observed following a huge disaster. It also shows a disaster threshold requiring external assistance for recovery and quick decision-making afterwards.