Statistical Analysis of the Relationship Between Social Capital and Evacuation: The Case of the 2017 Mt. Agung Eruption

Abstract

This study aimed to examine actual situations and problems involving evacuation activity during the Mt. Agung eruption in the autumn and winter of 2017. It also clarified (from the viewpoints of administrative information, individuals, families, local residence organizations, and simple notification services) the factors that promoted evacuation based on an examination of data from evacuees and supporters as provided by administrative agencies, questionnaires, and surveys. There were two main results. The first involved the relationship between alert recognition and recognition of the call for evacuation. When people received the volcanic eruption alert from real media sources, they also recognized the call for evacuation from other people or parties within those sources. When people received the alert through virtual media, they also recognized the call for evacuation from the same media. The information recognition path available through real media was narrower than that involving virtual media. Second, only the factor of “alert recognition” realized “group evacuation.” Factors such as “prior action” and “recognition of eruption in 1963” were not directly related to “group evacuation.”