Journal of Disaster Research
Online ISSN : 1883-8030
Print ISSN : 1881-2473
ISSN-L : 1881-2473
Regular Papers
Scenario Planning Approach to Pre-Event Planning for Post-Disaster Recovery: The Case of the Future Mega-Tsunami Striking Kushimoto, Japan
Tamiyo Kondo Shogo Takemoto
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2022 Volume 17 Issue 4 Pages 541-545


Previous studies have argued the significance of pre-event planning for post-disaster recovery. We examined how scenario planning approach is effective for pre-disaster planning. We applied scenario planning approach to develop strategies for multiple possible futures of the case study city, expected to hit by a massive tsunami following the Nankai Trough earthquake. Our analysis reveals the adaptive and transformative strategies for multiple scenarios. Uncertainty surrounding dynamic recovery processes need to enforce transformative strategies to reframe the Japanese planning paradigm in post-disaster recovery.

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