Depopulated Fishing Village Under the Prediction of a Nankai Trough Earthquake: Social Vulnerability and High Ground Relocation Planning in Taiki-cho, Mie Prefecture

Abstract

Japan’s disaster prevention law focuses on hazard countermeasures, but not on vulnerability. However, fishing villages expected to suffer damage from a Nankai Trough earthquake have a markedly declining and aging population, and earthquake countermeasures must be considered from a sustainability perspective. Based on this idea, this study presents an interdisciplinary analysis of the current state of disaster risk reduction (DRR) in a depopulated fishing village, using the Nishiki district of Taiki-cho, Mie Prefecture as a case study. The chief findings are as follows. First, we verified that the advanced tsunami evacuation measures promoted by the town authorities in Taiki-cho since the 1990s would be effective even in the event of a “maximum-class” Nankai Trough earthquake. Second, a disconnect exists between such tsunami countermeasures and conventional community-based DRR. We revealed that the former DRR in Nishiki used to be linked to the livelihoods of the local community; however, external development dismantled this system, leading to a transition toward tsunami-specific measures led by the town authorities. Third, considering the background of extreme depopulation and aging in Nishiki in recent years, a plan was formulated to relocate elderly people to higher ground in advance. Based on an analysis of residents’ opinions of this plan, we examined the relationship between future DRR and the sustainability of local communities in depopulated fishing villages.