Heterogeneity in Climate Risk Perception and Rights-Based Protection: A Multi-Group Analysis in the Marshall Islands and Kiribati

Abstract

This study examines how university students in the Marshall Islands and Kiribati differ in their attitudes toward climate adaptation. Multi-group confirmatory factor analysis revealed three factors: perceived feasibility of artificial islands (F1), satisfaction with current conditions (F2), and recognition of climate threats and rights protection (F3). Measurement invariance testing supported partial scalar invariance, allowing valid cross-group comparisons. Although F1 and F2 revealed no differences, F3 revealed heterogeneity through three findings. First, the latent structure differed, with a weaker covariance between F2 and F3 in the Kiribati group. Second, the Kiribati group scored lower on F3 than the Marshall Islands group. Third, permutation feature importance analysis indicated distinct determinants of F3, suggesting that it may rest on different psychological foundations in each country. Although the statistical evidence was modest, these results imply that uniform policy packages may be less effective than anticipated. The findings highlight the need for adaptation and climate justice strategies tailored to the unique socio-historical contexts shaping how atoll populations perceive their right to international protection.