A Simulation Model for Forecasting Urban Vulnerability to Earthquake Disasters in Lima, Peru: “LIMA-UVEQ”

Abstract

Looking ahead ten or twenty years, the urban population will inevitably increase in the Lima Metropolitan Area (LMA) of Peru. Various urban development projects will naturally be implemented in order to accommodate the additional population, and this could increase vulnerability to disasters from earthquakes if no corrective actions are taken. A computer simulation model termed LIMA-UVEQ was developed so that we could forecast the region’s vulnerability to earthquake disasters over the next twenty years. Two cases were evaluated: one where some earthquake damage mitigation measures are incorporated with urban development projects and another where no such measures are implemented. With the modeling results, we then try to propose an appropriate policy mix that can be implemented in line with urban growth.