Abstract
In the local finance, according to annual data, the Educational cost has occupied a high ratio and been especially an important position. In spite of that, in Japan the research for educational finance has traditionally laid stress on the analysis of the financial institution or that of the present financial condition. The modern local public finance is demanded to build in such a logical compatibility as scientific system of the public policy by the local government. Therefore the local educational finance is not deviate from this situation, either. In this research, with a view to solve such a problem, I have developed the econometric model of the national treasury disbursements for education (NTD). It is composed of seven enviromental variables, seven instrumental ones, twelve behavioral equations and six definitive ones. The procedure of the operation is as follows. To begin with, I classified the NTD into six types. They are i) the national treasury charge for educational facilities (FNTC), ii) the national treasury charge to encourage the entrance into a school (ENTC), iii) the national treasury charge for educational promotion (PNTC), iv) the national treasury subsidies for educational facilities (IETS), v) the national treasury subsides to encourage the entrance into a school (ERTS), and vi) the national treasury subsidies to promote the educational activities (EPTS). Then being based on the annual data concerning the national settlement of accounts from 1966 to 1985, I estimated the parameters of the equations that were representative of these six types by means of the multiple regression analysis. As the final procedure, by estimating the variables, the analysis through the simulation making use of the econometric model was performed on the period from 1986 until 1993. The result of the simulation indicated that the total amount of the NTD was expected to decrease year by year. The treasury subsidies or charge can be practically understood to be "the invisible cost" paying for "the visible benefit". There is much possibility for them to paralyze the consciousness of the public for the cost and stimulus the expansion of local educational expenses. In conclusion we'd like to reconsider the NTD for education at this decrease period.
