Examination of Maximum Sustainable Timber Yield Based on a Profitability Simulation

Abstract

Sustainable timber production that improves timber self-sufficiency is needed in Japan. We focused on predicting the maximum yield that can be supplied sustainably, considering the financial index, and examined the corresponding amounts of timber produced in relation to timber prices and logging costs. The study area consisted of privately owned forests in the area of former Sanpoku Town, Murakami City, Niigata Prefecture, Japan (38°21-33'N, 139°27-34'E). Maximum sustainable yield, which satisfied some assumed requirements, was acquired by developing a forest management model for the simulation. We also assessed the effects of timber market prices and logging costs. The results suggest that even slight changes in log prices have a large influence on maximum sustainable yield, implying that forest owners are operating on a slim profit margin. However, the results also suggest that efforts to reduce costs should be effective for enhancing profits, leading to a larger timber supply. Our results indicate that future timber yields could be dramatically increased by practicing restrained clear-cutting for several decades.