1999 Volume 11 Issue 3 Pages 419-428
Many pieces of tradition on weather predictions are seen all over Japan and they have customarily been utilized based on people's experience. The verbally expressed predictions based on the tradition are usually vague, and scientific analysis have not been attempted so far to the prediction accuracy of them. Results concerning the test of the temperature prediction accuracy are presented in this paper. The temperature prediction in a district is one of the constituents of long-term weather prediction based on an empirical "kan-dameshi" or "a prediction derived from cold season temperature variations". In actual procedure, numeric data which are the translations of the verbally expressed temperature predictions are used for the test by employing a coincidence rate and a score method. Another test concerning the temperature prediction is practiced as well with the verbally expressed every-three-months forecast announced by the Meteorological Agency. Our results over one year by using five-temperature-classes score method about "kan-dameshi" represented, on average, nearly 53% prediction accuracy, which is as same as the accuracy obtained from the Meteorological Agency data.
