Estimation of Reduction in CO2 Emission by Modal Shift Policy in Urban Commute Travel

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a model for forecasting the amount of carbon dioxide emission due to the traffic of urban commuters and students. The model consists of three sub-models: a sub-model for estimating the number of commuters and students, commuter modal choice sub-model with fuzzy reasoning and a sub-model for estimating the amount of carbon dioxide emission. Using this model, we analyze and predict the effect of policies to shift the commuters' travel mode from private car to public transportation for decreasing amount of carbon dioxide emission.