Journal of Japan Society for Fuzzy Theory and Systems
Online ISSN : 2432-9932
Print ISSN : 0915-647X
ISSN-L : 0915-647X
An Approach to Social System Simulation based on Linguistic Information : An Application to the forecast of foreign exchange rate changes
Michio SUGENOIchiro KOBAYASHI
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1994 Volume 6 Issue 4 Pages 701-719

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Abstract
Ordinary social system simulation depends on mathematical models based on numerical information. When we forecast the future trend of a social system, we often use this model. However, there are many cases where social scientists can get a better result of a simulation than that of a simulation based on a mathematical model. We assume that this is because they can translate all information into linguistic information in their heads and can use them for forecasting the trend of a social system. In this paper, we argue that linguistic information plays a very important role in the information processing. Therefore, we try to model the human ability of information processing based on language. We call this framework intelligent computing. To realize the information processing based on language, we need a framework of understanding the meaning of language. We apply the idea of systemic functional linguistic theory to this computing. Depending on the concept of this linguistic theory, we propose a linguistic model which expresses the human thinking process. Moreover, taking care of the natures of language, we show an information fusion based on language; various kinds of information are unified with language. As an example of our proposed methods for simulating a social system, we show a simulation estimating the future trend of the yen-dollar rate.
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© 1994 Japan Society for Fuzzy Theory and Intelligent Informatics
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