1997 Volume 9 Issue 2 Pages 287-296
From the viewpoint of practical reliability assurance, we often need to predict lifetimes, even when we do not have enough data during infant life. The authors propose a new method which utilizes experts' knowledge with a fuzzy reasoning, and study the prediction errors using failure date in accordance with the Weibull distribution.As a result, they show that the proposed method enables us to infer lifetimes based on one or a few infant life data without likelihood functions. Another new hybrid method which combines the fuzzy reasoning method with the maximum likelihood method is also proposed.