Demographic Analysis of Inter-municipal Migration of Foreign Residents in Japan

Abstract

 This paper presents demographic analysis of municipality-level migration of foreign residents in Japan. Using inter-municipal migration data derived from the Basic Resident Registration System, which covers foreign residents from 2013, in- and out-migration rates of foreign residents are compared to those of Japanese residents for each municipality. Preliminary analysis using the crude indicators shows higher rates of both in- and out- migration for foreign residents than Japanese residents in 94 per cent of the municipalities across the country. To adjust for age-sex composition, the indirect standardization method is applied with age-sex specific in- and out-migration rates of Japanese residents as the standard migration rates for each municipality. Comparison of the crude and standardized indicators suggests that, on average, differences in age-sex composition between foreign and Japanese residents account for over 40 per cent of differences in crude rates between the two groups for in- and out- migration in each municipality. At the same time, the results of analysis with the standardized migration ratios confirm that, even after controlling for age-sex composition, foreign residents are more mobile than Japanese residents in terms of municipality-level migration rates. Higher mobility of foreign residents is observed particularly in the three major metropolitan areas (Kanto, Chukyo, and Kinki), where over 90 per cent of the municipalities are characterized by both higher in- and out-migration rates for foreign residents than Japanese residents. Distinctive patterns with a combination of higher in-migration and lower out-migration rates for foreign residents are observed at some of the small and rural municipalities located in non-metropolitan areas, particularly in western regions such as Shikoku and Kyushu. Relatively high in-migration rates for foreign residents in these municipalities, however, can be attributed mainly to inflows of foreign trainees under the Technical Intern Training Program, which is not aimed at facilitating the long-term settlement of foreign trainees. From a long-term and sustainability point of view, thus, the implications of these observations challenge the demographic role of foreign residents in mitigating depopulation and population ageing in these rural areas.