Comparison of Tropical Cyclones Haiyan and Talas with Tropical Cyclones Having Similar Tracks in the Past 120 Years

Abstract

 Tropical cyclone (TC) Talas caused heavy rainfall and landslides in the Kii Peninsula of Japan in 2011, and TC Haiyan caused storm surges in Samar and Leyte islands of the Philippines in 2013. There are records of TC tracks similar to TC Haiyan and TC Talas in the past which show similar damages. In this study, we focus on these two TCs and compare their tracks with TCs having similar tracks observed during the past 117 and 122 years in the Philippines and Japan, respectively. Two TCs in 1897 and 1912 made landfall in the same area as TC Haiyan, which caused storm surges. TC Haiyan made landfall in the Visayas area of the Philippines. About 15 TCs land in the Visayas area every 10 years. However, these three TCs (including Haiyan) were among the strongest TCs landing in the Visayas area during the past 117 years. Intense TCs landed in the Visayas area posed a risk of storm surges to Samar and Leyte Islands. A TC in 1889 brought heavy rainfall and landslides to the same area as TC Talas did. About 3.7 TCs make landfall in the Kochi prefecture in Japan every 10 years. TC Talas and the TC in 1889 were among the slowest TCs that made landfall in the Kochi prefecture. Although more intensified TCs landed in the same area, they tended to propagate faster and produced less rainfall in the Kii Peninsula. Slow movements of TCs make landfall in the Kochi prefecture pose a risk of heavy rainfall and landslides in the Kii Peninsula. Imaging and digitization of historical paper-based instrumental meteorological records including TC tracks are referred to as “data rescue”. Longer TC records allow us to study TC cases with similar damage even when the frequencies of TC disaster are low.