Prediction of Greenhouse Warming by a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

Abstract

This paper describes the response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land surface model developed at GFDL to gradual changes of atmospheric carbon dioxide. It summarizes the results in three recently published papers (Stouffer et al., 1989 Manabe et al., 1991, 1992). They represent the current state of the art in predicting further climate change induced by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
The warming of the coupled system is reduced by the effective thermal inertia of the earth's surface which is essentially controlled by the vertical mixing of heat in the oceans. This study investigates how such vertical mixing of heat is achieved, resulting in the delay of the greenhouse warming in the joint troposphere-continental surface-ocean system.