Study on super long-term prediction of effects of natural phenomena such as active fault movement upon surrounding environments

Abstract

The design of civil engineering structures should consider the socio-environmental harmony with their surroundings. On the other hand, for important facilities or buildings with super long-term maintenance functions, it is desirable to plan these facilities at a geographically-stable location, considering the uncertainties of natural hazards occurring in the future. There exists a requirement to establish an evaluation method/criteria, to ascertain the long-term probability of occurrence and level of influence of various natural phenomena i.e. active fault movement, land upheaval, volcanic activity, heat effect, etc.
In order to avoid the risk of improper site selection that raises social concerns about natural disaster, after detailed site investigation has been performed, it is important to judge the super long-term or probabilistic site hazard in advance. The current study proposes the usage of an evaluation tool named, “Super long-term natural hazard prediction method”, for the selection of a suitable site for facility establishment, especially focusing the possibility of active fault movement and land upheaval.