2015 Volume 16 Issue 1 Pages 2-7
Colon cancer (ICD10：C18-C20) is one of the leading causes of deaths in Japan, and the morbidity and mortality rates have been increasing. The objectives of this study were to estimate and project the social cost of colon cancer using a cost of illness (COI) method. We calculated COI of 1996, 2002, 2008, 2014 and 2020 by using government office statistics and the COI method.
COI was estimated to be in upward trend from 871.6 billion yen in 1996 to 1,160.3 billion yen in 2008. As for the future projection using the mixed model, which was considered to be the most credible, COI was predicted to decrease (1,057.5 billion yen in 2014 and 941.1 billion yen in 2020). Among major contributing factors of COI change were aging of the population, changes in the medical system, and improvements and developments in medical technology, and especially the decrease of the human capital value by aging of the population was considered to be the most contributing factor. The results of this study would be used for health policy-making such as anti-cancer strategies.
