Development of Thai Rice Industry in a Flying Wild Geese Pattern

Abstract

Thai rice industry which is the biggest rice exporter in the contemporary world is expected to contribute the world food security in the 21st Century.

On the other hand, according to the FAO data, a stagnant or decreasing trend in the production and export of rice since the late 1980s has been identified.

This study is aimed at clarifying the development process of Thai rice industry which consists of rice production, marketing, processing, trade etc. This was done by the application of the “Hypothesis of Industrial Development in a Flying Wild Geese Pattern” which was established by Kaname Akamatsu and developed by Ippei Yamazawa (hereinafter, referred to as Akamatsu-Yamazawa Model).

Chapter 1 pointed out the necessity of some modifications of Akamatsu-Yamazawa Model to analyze the development process of agricultural sector like rice industry, because the model was based on the historical experience of Japanese industrialization, which is characterized by an assumption of “Domestic Demand Led and Import Precedent Initial growth”.

In Chapter 2, the “Graphic Model of Agricultural Development in a Flying Wild Geese Pattern” (referred to here as “Agricultural Model”) characterized by “Domestic Demand Led and Self-Sufficiency Oriented Initial Growth” is set up.

In Chapter 3, an empirical study of the “Agricultural Model” for development of Thai rice industry for 1965-92 was undertaken, and found that the rice industry has developed from the stage of “Export Development” to that of “Maturity” during the period.

In Chapter 4, the factors and mechanism of the development process in the rice industry were analyzed from the domestic and international view points.

Chapter 5 discussed the probability of development path up to the stage of “Re-import”, which is the final stage of the 5-stage model in Akamatsu-Yamazawa Model.

In conclusion, some implications for the sustainable development of export-oriented Thai rice industry were presented. It was contended that it is highly inevitable for Thailand to maintain the comparative advantage against the late coming rice exporting countries, like Vietnam and USA, by the cost-reducing agricultural development and the establishment of more efficient marketing system.