Abstract
A method of considering the long-term cost effectiveness of measures for reducing global warming gasses, saving energy and fuel diversification is needed, especially for China, India and ASEAN countries, where demand in the transport sector is expected to increase rapidly. The authors focused on the passenger car sectors in these three regions and developed an energy and CO2 emission analysis model that is based on a multinomial logit model that projects the probability of consumer choices. The authors estimated CO2 reduction potential by assuming not only future automotive technology advancements but integrated approaches such as eco-driving, improved traffic flows and bio-fuels by the year 2050. As a result, it was estimated that CO2 emission in the three regions for the combined advanced technology and integrated approach case would decrease by 49%-54% compared with the business as usual (BaU) case defined in this paper.
