Study on Evaluation Framework for Energy Security

Abstract

Evaluation framework for energy security is discussed in this paper. Today, consideration of four factors, energy security, economic efficiency, environment and safety, is required for research on future energy. With regard to energy security, evaluations tend to be qualitative since method to estimate the cost of energy security has not been established. Based on the assumption that the security risk is relaxed to an acceptable degree by the fuel stockpile, we propose the evaluation framework to estimate the cost of energy security from any energy mix. Utilizing this framework, present and future energy mix is studied. It is found that the configuration of thermal power assumed by 2030 to be almost the same configuration giving the minimum total cost when CO₂ value reaches the range of $60-80/t-CO₂. It is also suggested that it will be difficult for coal fired power generation to contribute to minimize the total cost including power generation, CO₂ and energy security if CO₂ value exceeds $160/t-CO₂.