An Analysis of the Long-Term of Energy Demand and Supply Structure in Indonesia

Abstract

Based on Indonesian total final energy demand, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), population history for the past 20 years, and the long-term economic policy of the Indonesian government, we estimated the energy demand structure in Indonesia to the year 2033 and then enaluated the impact of energy supply-related cost, such as energy cost and energy conversion system construction costs, on the energy supply and demand structure in Indonesia. To simplify the analysis, the total energy system cost was minimized using linear programming techniques.
As a result of this study, it was determined that if domestic crude oil and natural gas were kept at today's prices, coal liquefaction technology would be introduced ca. 2013, and a small amount of crude oil for liquid fuel demand would be imported. If domestic crude oil and natural gas prices were to be increased linearly to the international price, the importation of large amounts of crude oil would result and a smaller coal liquefaction capacity would be required compared to the above case. The reason was that the crude oil is imported upper limit on the domestic natural gas police since imported crude oil is cheaper than domestic natural gas.