Some Suggestions for Future Energy System and Technology Development Based on Energy Supply/Demand “Prediction”

Abstract

There are various Energy-Economic models which provide future outlooks or scenarios of energy demand/supply, considering each country’s policies and new technology introductions. Those models are worth making to know basic demand/supply trends and some implications under a certain condition for policy makers, but are NOT predictions. I point out fundamental limitations of such models themselves, and the perception gap between people’s expectation for models and their reality. I suggest some my personal “predictions” about future energy system, business, policy and technology which have great uncertainty and could have big impact on energy related technology developments.