Journal of Japan Industrial Management Association
Online ISSN : 2187-9079
Print ISSN : 1342-2618
ISSN-L : 1342-2618
Original Paper (Theory and Methodology)
Prediction Market System using VIPS, Gaussian Forecast Distribution and Batch-updating Central Market Maker for Demand Forecasting
Hajime MIZUYAMA
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JOURNAL FREE ACCESS

2013 Volume 64 Issue 2E Pages 258-271

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Abstract
This paper presents an intra-company prediction market system as a collective-knowledge-based demand forecasting tool. The system uses the variable interval prediction security (VIPS) to be traded in the market and is controlled by a newly introduced computerized central market maker (CMM). The CMM has a Gaussian forecast distribution and updates the distribution on a batch basis through an inventory-based updating logic according to the transactions of the VIPS in the market. An agent-based simulation and laboratory experiments are performed to confirm whether the proposed system functions properly as a subjective forecasting tool.
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© 2013 Japan Industrial Management Association
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