Countermeasure Planning to Control the Supply-Demand Gap in Early Stage of Disasters

―A Model to Evaluate Countermeasures Focused on the Resources-Process Relationships―

Abstract

To enable services to be provided continuously at the time of a disaster, organizations have to prepare some countermeasures in the form of a business continuity plan. Before planning the countermeasures, it is necessary for the organization to evaluate its current capabilities based on its available resources and intricate interdependencies in order to estimate the effectiveness of possible countermeasures. Using the concept of a dependency graph, a model is constructed to calculate the amount of services based on amount of available resources. The node and edge categories are classified to determine the structure of the proposed model. Next, we establish variables, and finally a formula for evaluation is created. The model proposed is applied to medical services and the capabilities of a hospital are measured. In conclusions, efficacy of this model is confirmed by simulation using actual data in a hospital. Using this model, effectiveness of countermeasures can be grasped quantitatively.