An Analysis of Distributions of Effective Ship Domain and Passing Course in Overtaking

Abstract

Theoretical models of the effective ship domain and the passing course in overtaking are proposed. The models give spatial distributions of both the effective ship domain and the passing courses in overtaking. The distributions are reduced by aggregating the probabilistic behaviours of individual ships overtaking under given circumstances. The most basic idea of the models is in the utility function of the individual ships expressed by the term of collision risk in overtaking and the probability model of uncertainty of the course of the overtaken ship. The accuracy of the proposed models is examined by the radar observational data at East Bisan Strait in Japan, which give the spatial distribution of the passing courses of overtaking ships. The results show good fitness of the proposed models.