Safety Assessment of Oceanic Composite Separation Routes by Collision Risk-II : Longitudinal Collision Risk of NOPAC Composite Separation Routes

Abstract

This paper describes the method and results of safety assessment for the North Pacific (NOPAC) composite separation route system. The collision risk due to loss of longitudinal separation is estimated using the observation data on traffic flow characteristics. In order to estimate model parameters of the longitudinal collision risk model, flight progress strips and flight plan data were used for analyses. The longitudinal collision risk for a route segment of the R220 (from NIPPI to NUBDA) of the NOPAC was estimated using several data sets. The estimated risk values based on each data set were compared and reviewed.