Prediction Model of Recovery of Population in Areas Damaged by Earthquake for Disaster Recovery Planning

－Analysis on Kobe City after the 1995 Kobe Earthquake and Application to Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake－

Abstract

This study aims to setup a prediction model of recovery of population in areas damaged by earthquake. Firstly, a basic concept of a prediction model is shown. That is constituted by 2-step of Regression Analysis. The model is set up by using population data in Kobe city after 1995 Kobe Earthquake. It shows fliat damages on people and buildings have statistically significant relation to population decrease and recovery. Secondly, the msodel is applied to 23 wards at Tokyo in Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake. Population recovery of each ward is estimated. It is estimated that some wards would take long time until recovery. This research is useful for disaster recovery planning.