A Study on Quantification of Risk of Jam of Walkers to Go Home in Urban Area at the Time of an Earthquake Disaster

Abstract

After an earthquake disaster, the transportation system may completely shut down in urban area, which is very dangerous for workers to go home. This problem may influence not only walking people to be injured because of congestion, but also rescue operation to delay. In this study, we define this possibility as risk of jam of walkers to go home. This risk is quantificated by simulation on the basis of the area of departure and destination of moving. As a result of the analysis, we evaluate which route of going home has higher risk of jam of walkers to go home. Also, it becomes clear that starting going home with a time difference and proper traffic regulation can reduce risk.