Estimating the Differences of Logging Tendencies between Inside and Outside Zone to Promote Planting

Abstract

Regional forest management policies such should be evaluated appropriately to avoid unintended effects. The local government of the study area have impelled forestry enterprises to plant after clear-cutting inside the “zone to promote planting (zone)” since 2017. This study analyzed the differences of clear-cutting tendencies between inside and outside the zone with respect to area and locations. We calculated ATT (average treatment effect on the treated) by a statistical causal inference method: an inverse probability of treatment weighting method with propensity score. Forest age, slope degree, and distances from roads were used as covariates. As a result, ATT was －0.22％±0.11％, which means clear-cut had been avoided inside the zone compared to outside. Quantitative analysis of policy impacts, as done in this study, is fundamental for EBPM (evidence-based policy making) and sustainable forest management.