1995 Volume 2 Pages 33-46
We have a difficulty when discussing an oversupply of medical doctors (MDs) if we compare the number of MDs per population (MPP) in the developed countries because of differences in health care systems. We also have a difficulty with demonstrating an oversupply of MDs because of creating a normative discussion when we compare the number of MDs in terms of the ideal health care system. However, we can discuss the oversupply of MDs more realistically and reevaluate MD training programs when we review an MD's future earning power in a health care organization from the view point of the organization's management sustainability under the worse conditions of government's cost containment policy and an oversupply of MDs. In the case of Japan, even if the higher growth rate in health care expenditures is realized and the the MD's employment is ensured, it is not avoidable for MDs to lose some of their earning power due to a significantly increased number of MDs. And it may cause problems of deteriorating MDs quality because the simulation experiment forecasts that the average MD's wage would become similar to other salaried workers in 30 years in the worst case. Therefore, the Japanese government should control its MD training programs by keeping MPP below the level of USA in 1989 in order to avoid the above problem.
