Marriage at a Time of Uncertainty

The Effects of Earning Potential Using JGSS Life Course Study Data

Abstract

In recent years, an increasing number of individuals have delayed marriage or remained unmarried, and this is considered as the major cause of the falling birthrate and the aging population. However, the results of past studies examining first marriages were inconsistent. Such mixed findings were due mainly to data limitations. Thus, the present study employed an event history analysis to investigate how the effects of individuals' education, work status, and living arrangements on marriage change as they age. Data from the JGSS Life Course Study 2009 (JGSS-2009LCS) containing detailed life histories were used for the analysis. The results showed that the magnitude of each determinant varies with age. Despite a rapid downturn in the employment situation, a man's earning power has continued to be an important key to marriage, while many people have begun to form expectations about a woman's earning role. Family formation is regarded as posing a considerable risk in a situation in which future economic prospects are uncertain.