Abstract
Forecast of drug demand by computer needs the following parameters such as period of order, ordering point, ordering quantity and present stock.The regular order dates are Monday and Thursday, and the maximum lead time period is four days in our hospital.Ordering point, which is the sum of a minimum possession amount and a safety surplus amount, is set as the used amount of a drug in a week, theoretically.When ordering quantity is decided, the deferred stock should be considered.Therefore, we have investigated two cases;one case is to pull deferred stock from the predicted amount, another is not.The latter case got good results, when shortage probability, ordering quantity and frequency of order were compared. Next, the problem about the shortage of space occurred for the case of transfusions, which were of great bulk, when the ordering quantity was set as the accompanying used amount of a drug in two weeks.This problem was solved by changing the ordering quantity from the used amount of a drug in two weeks to the accompanying amount of a drug in certain period obtained from the real frequency of order in the previous year.
