Proposal of Three New Indicators to Combat Coronary Infections: Real Number of New Positive Cases, Short-term Prediction Using ARMA Model, Long-term Prediction Using Geographic Time Lag

Abstract

To confront COVID-19 infections, which are highly uncertain, it is important, as a precondition for implementing countermeasures, to (1) understand the current status of the number of new positive cases by removing the effects of increases or decreases in the number of tests, and (2) secure a time margin for implementing policies so that they do not follow the status quo.

In this paper, we will discuss (1) the “real number of new positive cases” to accurately recognize the current situation, (2) the “short-term forecast using the ARMA (autoregressive moving-average) model” to contribute to appropriate decision-making, and (3) the “long-term forecast using the geographical time lag which ensures long-term preparation time for medical infrastructure development.