Abstract
A GIS-based thee dimensional landslide prediction systems is proposed. Firstly, all single slopes (Slope unit) are identified by proposed GIS terrain analysis. Secondly, 3D slip surface is modeled by using an interface between ground and an ellipse. The spatial posture of this ellipse is determined based on the digital data of terrain elevation, aspect and slope angle. A modified HOVLAND's three dimensional slope stability safety factor equation is used. By using Monte Carlo simulation technique, the spatial posture of the ellipse and the ellipse curvature can be randomly changed, and by calculating the safety factor for all the cases the critical slide surface, which gives minimum safety factor for slope failure, can be found and corresponding critical spatial slide volume can be determined for every slope in entire area.
