Pediatric Surgical Mnapower in Japan : The supply will exceed the demand

Abstract

The issue of pediatric surgical manpower is critical to the long-range planning for national health care in childre. In several countries where pediatiric surgery is well established, one pediatric surgeon per half million population is recognized as a reasonable number. Board certified pediatric surgeons at present in Japan is 211 and this number/population ratio seems to be reasonable. To estimnate the proper pediatric surgical manpower in the future, a computer analysis was made to project numbers of pediatric surgeon in pediatric population until the year 2020 with differing level of trainee output. The study indicates that (1) if current trends of increasing ratio continue, the number of pediatric sugeon after the year of 2000 is extraordinarily large. (2) individuals entering the system every year should be restricted to 10-13 to allow for modest growth of the speciality.