Predicting potential distribution of Thelypteris dentata and the changes based on climate change scenario

Abstract

Classification tree model was developed using distribution data of T. dentata and current climate dataset. The suitable habitats (SH) in Japan under current and climatic change scenario (RCM20) were predicted using the model. The model, deviance weighted score and predicted SH revealed that the influential climate variables for the distribution were WI(warmth index) and PRS(summer precipitation) mainly, and PRW(winter precipitation) and TMC(minimum temperature for the coldest month) locally The number of second mesh cells of SH under current, 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 of RCM20 scenario was 1,388, 2,179 and 2,813 respectively. The suitable habitats were predicted to shift whole Honshu except high mountain region and Hokkaido, and to reach northernmost of Honshu.