Journal of the Japan Statistical Society, Japanese Issue
Online ISSN : 2189-1478
Print ISSN : 0389-5602
ISSN-L : 0389-5602
Bayesian Learning Process and The Lucas Supply Function
Shigeyuki Hamori
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1985 Volume 15 Issue 1 Pages 93-105

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Abstract
The rational expectations hypothesis plays a very important role in today's macroeconomic analysis. But in most of the arguments based on this idea, it is assumed that individuals know the economic structure correctly (including the value of each parameter). I think, however, that this assumption of information exploitation is too extreme and the learning mechanism for the economic structure must be analyzed explicitly. In this paper, the following two points are examined; 1) the information search activities of agents and their effects on the slope of the Lucas supply function, 2) the convergency of people's expectations to rational expectations and its effects on their supply activities.
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