Journal of the Japan Statistical Society, Japanese Issue
Online ISSN : 2189-1478
Print ISSN : 0389-5602
ISSN-L : 0389-5602
Special Section: Econometric Analysis of Spatial Data
Migration Response to High Unemployment Rates: Spatial Econometric Analysis Using Japanese Municipal Data
Keisuke Kondo
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2015 Volume 45 Issue 1 Pages 69-98

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Abstract
Using the Japanese municipal data-set between 1980 and 2010, this paper empirically analyzes the underlying mechanism of interregional labor migration. Since the existing literature shows that regional disparities in unemployment rates have decreased gradually, our main concern is to uncover how the labor migration contributes to reducing the unemployment disparities. A novel approach to the migration analysis is to incorporate interregional dependency in migration decisions by using spatial econometric models. Our estimation results show that high unemployment rates play a role of push factor for migration and that there is a statistically significant and positive spatial dependence in interregional migration. Furthermore, we find a negative relationship between percentage changes in relative unemployment rates and out-migration rates. Therefore, our results suggest that (in)sufficient out-migration of the unemployed from high (low) unemployment regions leads to low (high) regional unemployment rates in subsequent periods.
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© 2015 Japan Statistical Society
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