How to recognize cognitive biases in risk perception in case of disasters

－Applying cognitive psychology to reduce damages in disasters－

Abstract

  One of the most important themes of psychology in relation to disasters is whether ordinary people can correctly recognize the risk of disasters or not. There are many examples in our history that people could not appropriately recognize the risk of disasters and failed to evacuate in time. As a result, they suffered from serious damages, which they might have avoided. Many psychological studies dealing with cognitive information processing in human reasoning and judgment process have pointed out a lot of cognitive biases that cause such inappropriate decision-makings in emergencies. In this paper, I outline the nature of cognitive biases from the view point of cognitive psychology, especially of “the normalcy bias”. Then I will suggest that characteristics of such cognitive biases should be taken into account in order to improve our capacity in various disasters.