2007 Volume 85 Issue 4 Pages 511-519
We statistically analyzed both the reproducibility of the present climate, and future climate projections in the Asian monsoon region, using two Regional Climate Models (RCMs), nested into the MRI-CGCM2.2 to assess regional climate projections associated with global warming. Both GCM-RCM systems reproduced the present regional surface air temperature well. Also, they indicated about the same temperature increases as that of GCM for all regions over the Asian continent. The reproducibility of the present-climate precipitation amounts, in the lower-latitude regions was not as good as that of the surface air temperature, although it was better simulated in the higher-latitude regions. The future precipitation increase was not statistically significant. It was also statistically revealed that precipitation in future projections, with GCM-RCM systems, tended to converge in regions where the model biases were small. This result suggests the importance of an accurate reproduction of the present regional climate using physically based dynamical models, in order to analyze regional climate changes.
