Recent Weakening of the Interannual Relationship between ENSO Modoki and Boreal Summer Tropical Cyclone Frequency over the Western North Pacific

Abstract

This study shows that the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Modoki on boreal summer tropical cyclone (TC) formation over the western North Pacific (WNP) has experienced decadal changes during the past few decades. The correlation between the ENSO Modoki index and TC frequency over the WNP is weak during 1975–1989, becomes strong and significant during 1990–2004, and becomes weak again during 2005–2019. Over the eastern part of the WNP, ENSO Modoki enhanced TC formation during 1990–2004 but did not significantly impact on the TC formation during 1975–1989 and 2005–2019. The difference in correlation strength primarily results from changes in large-scale features related to ENSO Modoki among the three subperiods (1975–1989, 1990–2004, and 2005–2019). El Niño Modoki during 1990–2004 was characterized by a tripole sea surface temperature (SST) pattern with maximum SST anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific, while during 1975–1989 and 2005–2019, the maximum SST anomalies were located over the subtropical northeastern Pacific. The two primary environmental variables likely leading to these observed relationships between ENSO Modoki and TCs were mid-level moisture (RH600) and low-level vorticity (VOR850). During 1990–2004, TC formation was enhanced both south of 20°N and north of 20°N. The increase in TC activity during El Niño Modoki south of 20°N was likely tied to greater RH600 and north of 20°N to larger cyclonic VOR850. In contrast, ENSO Modoki's impacts on both VOR850 and RH600 were weak during 1975–1989 and 2005–2019.