Article ID: 2019-022
We investigated extremely heavy precipitation that occurred around the Kinugawa River, Japan, in September 2015, and the probability of extreme precipitation occurrence, using data from a large ensemble forecast more than 1,000 members that were dynamically downscaled to 1.6 km horizontal grid spacing. The observed event was statistically rare among simulated cases and 3-day accumulated precipitation around the target area was equivalent to the 95th percentile among all simulated ensemble members. Our results show that this extreme precipitation event occurred under specific conditions: two coexisting typhoons at close proximity that produces a high atmospheric instability, and water vapor transport from the Pacific Ocean. We also assessed the probability of extreme precipitation in mountainous areas other than the Kinugawa River case. Heavy precipitation also occurred southwest of the Kinugawa River region due to two typhoons, similar to the Kinugawa River case. The tracks of these typhoons shifted marginally; however, there was a difference in the water vapor supplied to the area, causing heavy precipitation. The large-ensemble downscaled data used in this study hence enable us to evaluate the occurrence probability of a torrential rainfall event that was rarely observed, which may contribute to updating a disaster mitigating plan for possible similar disasters in future.