Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Upper Tropospheric Cold Lows and Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Western North Pacific

Abstract

 This study examined the statistical characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) for which the cyclogenesis (TCG) process was modulated by upper tropospheric cold lows (UCLs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the 38 years from 1979 to 2016. Among the 965 TCs, 90 (9 %, 2.4 per year) were defined as having TCG influenced by UCLs in the northwest quadrant of the TC region (UL-TCs). Most UL-TCs occurred in the summer, with large variability in the annual occurrence rate of UL-TCs during June to October, ranging from 0 to approximately 30 %. The annual variation was related to the activity of the Tibetan high and the summer temperature anomaly over Japan. The extremely hot summer of 2016 was partly enhanced by the intense Tibetan high, when 4 UL-TCs also occurred. The average location of UL-TCs at the time of TCG and tropical storm formation (TSF) was significantly farther to the north than the average location of TCs not formed under the influence of UCL (N-UL-TCs). Many UL-TCs occurred in lower tropospheric environments associated with the shear line or confluence regions. The UL-TCs tended to move northward, and the occurrence rate of UL-TCs that made landfall in Japan was approximately double that of other countries. The atmospheric environmental parameters around UL-TCs at the time of TCG were more favorable for the development of TCs than those around N-UL-TCs. In contrast, the atmospheric and oceanic environmental parameters around UL-TCs at the time of TSF were less favorable for the development of TSs, such that UL-TCs tended to remain at weak in intensity.