Abstract
Meteorological variables which likely are associated with the initiation and maintenance of the Indian summer monsoon are examined in a regression analysis. Consequently, a longrange forecasting scheme for the monsoon onset date in southwestern India and the total seasonal rainfall in central India is formulated. The regression forecasting scheme involves five predictors for the onset date and six predictors for the rainfall. These predictors include upper air parameters at 100, 200 and 700mb over India and Australia and the sea surface temperature in the Indian region. The forecast experiments for the period1958-77show the predicted onset dates and seasonal rainfall to be very close to the recorded dates and rainfall. Various aspects of the forecasting scheme are discussed.
