2020 Volume 69 Issue 2 Pages 183-185
Objectives: In case that a nuclear accident occurs, radioactive iodine may be released and cause thyroid cancer. In this study, the establishment of people-centred stable iodine prophylaxis was discussed.
Methods: The excess thyroid cancer incidence and the lifetime thyroid cancer risk were estimated and interventional level was calculated from a risk-benefit analysis. Furthermore, the number of thyroid cancer occurrences and the incidence of adverse events were predicted from the interventional simulation.
Results: The lifetime thyroid cancer risk per unit thyroid equivalent dose（1 Sv）was highest at 10.5 and 3.3, respectively, per 1,000 people, in female children and male children under 5 years of age. The predicted equivalent dose of thyroid as an intervention level decreased with increasing severity of adverse events, and increased with decreasing the effect of risk reduction. The interventional simulations showed that the predicted number of adverse events could be higher in elderly groups.
Conclusions: The stable iodine prophylaxis may be applied for the groups with a greater lifetime risk among the residents. However, there are circumstances that must be taken into consideration in local areas and it is necessary to address them cooperatively between local government agencies and residents.
