A Population Projection Model by Zone and Age Class Using Cohort Analysis and Housing Data Regression

Abstract

A POPULATION PROJECTION MODEL BY ZONE AND AGE CLASS IN A METROPOLITAN AREA IS PROPOSED IN THIS PAPER. IT IS A MIXED MODEL OF COHORT ANALYSIS AND A REGRESSION MODEL ON THE NUMBER OF HOUSES THAT HAVE INCREASED OR DECREASED IN THE ZONE. THE PROJECTION RESULT IN OSAKA METROPOLITAN AREA USING THIS MODEL IS BETTER THAN THE ONE BY ORDINARY COHORT ANALYSIS. IN PARTICULAR, THE PROJECTION ERROR OF THE MODEL IS MUCH SMALLER IN ZONES WHERE HOUSEHOLDS MOVE FREQUENTLY.