A study on Fire Spreading Simulation System for Evacuation Planning in a Strong Earthquake

Abstract

We have developed a fire spreading simulation system based on Hamada and Fujita's models. In this paper, we try to verify the system as a information system for evacuation plannings in a strong earthquake.
First, we estimate factorial effects of main factors which effect the result of simulation by this system, using the L₁₆ table of orthogonal arrays, and show that “wind-velocity” has the biggest effect and “building-to-land-ratio” the secondary.
Next, we simulate the Fukumitsu Big Fire by this system and indicate that the system has a tendency to overestimate the leeward spreading of a fire and underestimate the windward spreading.