EVALUATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL RISK OF TYPHOON HAGIBIS (2019) ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON TRACK

Abstract

 This study investigated the rainfall characteristics of Typhoon Hagibis (2019) by focusing on the relationship between the typhoon track and the amount of rainfall. Analysis was performed based on the data of past typhoons, Typhoon Hagibis ensemble forecast experiments, and massive ensemble climate data. Each analysis revealed the relationship between typhoon tracks and rainfall, and the potential rainfall amount caused by Typhoon Hagibis based on short-term weather forecasts (several days). The effect of the progression of global warming on rainfall was also evaluated. Analysis based on past typhoon cases suggests that rainfall may have increased at several locations when Typhoon Hagibis shifted to the east. Furthermore, the amount of rainfall has tended to increase regardless of the typhoon track since the progression of global warming. Moreover, at the Chichibu weather station, the amount of rainfall was similar to that in conventional weather, even with a 2° shift toward the east or west direction from the track, similar to Typhoon Hagibis.