Quantitative Prediction of Earthquake Occurrence as Stochastic Phemomena

Abstract

In this paper, the occurrence of earthquakes is regarded as a stochastic process and to it the theory of stochastic process is applied with an intention to investigate the possibility of the earthquake predictions by this procedure. At first the theory of prediction is roughly sketched. Discussions follow as to what quantity in the phenomena should be taken as the stochastic variable. As the result [n(t)-E(n(t))] is found to be the most appropriate quantity, where n(t) is the number of earthquakes belonging to specified range of magnitude which occurred in a specified area from t=0 to t=t and E(n(t)) is the average of n(t) at t=t. The theory is applied to conspicuous earthquakes occurred near Shiriyasaid between 1900 and 1945, and the occurrence is predicted or extrapolated up to 1947 and compared with the actual.